Global economic dynamics have placed finance, management, and business issues in the public spotlight, with investment emerging as a focal point of societal attention.

Through various instruments such as stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate—each possessing distinct risk characteristics—investment is now relied upon as a strategy for economic risk mitigation, a source of passive income, and a vehicle for long-term savings. This shift in function, bolstered by the ease of information access, has triggered a surge in public enthusiasm for engaging in the investment world, particularly within the stock market sector.

However, despite the recorded increase in enthusiasm, particularly towards late 2024, the investment landscape—especially regarding equities—remains a multi-faceted and relatively complex analytical challenge for many individuals. Understanding the correlation between how policies influence stock trends is mandatory for implementation and study, both for novice and experienced investors.

This necessity defines the task for analysts and academics: to further disseminate financial literacy across various strata of society, whether they have already begun investing or not. This drive motivated a student from the Management Study Program at Universitas Dian Nusantara (UNDIRA) to analyze the extent to which policy dynamics influence investment trends.

Even when supported by top-tier analysis systems, stock movements often remain unpredictable. As observers of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) are aware, the Indonesian stock market is highly susceptible to various influences. These factors include geopolitical conditions, the economic climate, sentiment regarding issuer performance, and the psychology of both local and foreign investors that shape market decisions.

In this research, the UNDIRA student mapped several technology sector issuers from the 2018–2022 period. This focus was driven by the fluctuations in major technology and E-Commerce sectors—such as GOTO, BUKA, DCII, and WIRG—as well as the expansion of the fintech sector. The COVID-19 pandemic was also assessed as a pivotal factor influencing sentiments regarding the acceleration of technology during that era.

The study utilized EViews 12 (Electronic Views) software to visualize and analyze spreadsheet-based data, conduct statistical processing, and generate graphical simulations. To achieve comprehensive results, the quantitative analysis was enriched with a qualitative approach through international news tracking. The integration of these two methods aimed to minimize bias between methodologies.

The research analysis results by the UNDIRA Management Study Program student revealed several critical and unique points regarding stock movement patterns, particularly regarding Technology and Fintech issuer movements.

The study found that decisions such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve System (The Fed) and consumer price inflation did not directly influence stock trends; rather, it was the financial statements released subsequently that had a significant impact capable of attracting investors.

This concept aligns with the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and the findings of Mustika et al. (2022), which confirm the significant influence of macroeconomic variables on company performance and stock returns. From a more specific perspective, Signalling Theory explains the mechanism by which macroeconomic policy impacts—such as inflation and Fed policies—are transmitted as sensitive information signals for issuers, ultimately becoming a crucial basis for investors' decision-making.

A deeper understanding of multidisciplinary analysis in the capital market demonstrates that risk management and investment require measurable analytical acuity. Based on this premise, this research by the student of the Management Study Program at Universitas Dian Nusantara (UNDIRA) is expected to be beneficial in enriching our financial literacy in the long term.

Source of Reference:

Elisa, V. 2024. Pengaruh Faktor Eksternal dan Faktor Internal terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Teknologi yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada Periode 2018-2022. Skripsi. Program Studi Manajemen, Universitas Dian Nusantara, Jakarta Barat.

Bursa Efek Indonesia - Jumlah Investor Pasar Modal Indonesia Tembus 20 Juta